On constraining projections of future climate using observations and simulations from multiple climate models

first_imgNumerical climate models are used to project future climate change due to both anthropogenic and natural causes. Differences between projections from different climate models are a major source of uncertainty about future climate. Emergent relationships shared by multiple climate models have the potential to constrain our uncertainty when combined with historical observations. We combine projections from 13 climate models with observational data to quantify the impact of emergent relationships on projections of future warming in the Arctic at the end of the 21st century. We propose a hierarchical Bayesian framework based on a coexchangeable representation of the relationship between climate models and the Earth system. We show how emergent constraints fit into the coexchangeable representation, and extend it to account for internal variability simulated by the models and natural variability in the Earth system. Our analysis shows that projected warming in some regions of the Arctic may be more than 2 (Formula presented.) C lower and our uncertainty reduced by up to 30% when constrained by historical observations. A detailed theoretical comparison with existing multi-model projection frameworks is also provided. In particular, we show that projections may be biased if we do not account for internal variability in climate model predictions. Supplementary materials for this article, including a standardized description of the materials available for reproducing the work, are available as an online supplement.last_img read more

ExxonMobil hints at $30m natural gas writedown as losses mount

first_imgExxonMobil posted a third consecutive quarterly loss in 2020, pledging deeper cost cuts and a potential ‘significant’ writedown to North American natural gas assets Exxon has slashed its capital spending budget this year, and expects to make further reductions in 2021 (Credit: Jonathan Weiss/Shutterstock) ExxonMobil has posted its third straight quarterly loss in 2020, and warned of a potential $30bn writedown to its North American natural gas assets.The Texas oil giant reported a third-quarter loss of $680m – following up account-book hits of $610m and $1.1bn in the first and second quarters of 2020 respectively.The third-quarter performance compares to a $3.2bn profit in the same period of 2019.It has been a tough year for oil companies amid the price crash triggered by coronavirus and record-low declines in global fuel demand.The market has been stabilising in recent months, however, and Exxon’s heavy loss contrasts with its European rivals BP and Shell which both reported better-than-expected earnings earlier this week.Chevron, which also disclosed its finances today, posted adjusted net income of $201m – although on a non-adjusted basis it fell to a $207m loss.Exxon has also revealed plans to deepen its capital-spending cuts in 2021 to between $16bn and $19bn. The firm already lowered its 2020 capex budget by 30% to $23bn back in April.It said it is also looking to identify “further structural efficiencies” as it conducts an internal review of global activities.Yesterday, the US oil major confirmed plans to cut 1,900 jobs in the US as part of a much broader plan to downsize its global workforce by up to 15% as it pursues operational savings.Exxon has left its fourth-quarter dividend unchanged at $0.87 per share. ExxonMobil says portfolio review could lead to huge North American natural gas writedownThe company has also hinted at possible “significant impairments” for its dry gas assets in North America, as part of an ongoing re-assessment of its portfolio.“Depending on the outcome of the planning process, including in particular any significant future changes to the corporation’s current development plans for its dry gas portfolio, long-lived assets with carrying values of approximately $25bn to $30bn could be at risk for significant impairment,” Exxon said in a statement.Reports suggest many of these assets are related to the company’s 2010 acquisition of shale producer XTO Energy for roughly $35bn.The portfolio assessment is expected to be concluded in the fourth quarter.ExxonMobil chief executive Darren Woods said: “We remain confident in our long-term strategy and the fundamentals of our business, and are taking the necessary actions to preserve value while protecting the balance sheet and dividend.“We are on pace to achieve our 2020 cost-reduction targets and are progressing additional savings next year as we manage through this unprecedented down cycle.”Exxon, as well as other US hydrocarbon producers, are facing mounting pressure to offer a strategic response to climate change. European counterparts, including BP, Shell and Total, have embarked on low-carbon transformations this year, but Exxon has so far declined to shift its focus away from fossil fuels.The company confirmed it is advancing its offshore operations in Guyana, pressing ahead with a third major project in the Stabroek Block that will deliver 220,000 barrels of oil per day from 2024. New discoveries in Guyana’s deepwater reserves have increased the Exxon’s recoverable-resource estimates for the region to nine billion barrels of oil equivalent.last_img read more

HII Awarded Further CVN 68 Works

first_img View post tag: News by topic Huntington Ingalls Inc. received an $8,3 million modification to previously awarded contract for fiscal 2015 propulsion plant engineering activity support for Nimitz (CVN 68) class life-cycle management.Engineering support services include analyses, configuration management and recommendations for ship change documents.Work will be performed in Newport News, Virginia, and is expected to complete by March 2016.Fiscal 2015 operations and maintenance (Navy) contract funds in the amount of $8,396,093 will be obligated at the time of award and will expire at the end of the current fiscal year.The Supervisor of Shipbuilding, Conversion and Repair, Newport News, Virginia, is the contracting activity.[mappress mapid=”15387″]Image: US Navy Authorities View post tag: Navy Back to overview,Home naval-today HII Awarded Further CVN 68 Works View post tag: CVN 68 View post tag: HII View post tag: Awarded View post tag: Navalcenter_img March 13, 2015 View post tag: works Share this article View post tag: americas View post tag: Nimitz View post tag: further HII Awarded Further CVN 68 Workslast_img read more

Peters-Margedant House Move through Evansville to UE Campus

first_imgPeters-Margedant House Move through Evansville to UE Campus A press conference was held at the University of Evansville today to announce details of the Peters-Margedant house’s impending move from its current location at 1506 East Indiana Street through town to the UE campus.UE president Tom Kazee, local architect Adam Greene, UE associate professor of art history Heidi Strobel, and Friends of the Peters-Margedant House representative James Renne provided details to the public.Barring any major delays, the move is scheduled to begin Thursday, August 25 at 9:00 a.m., and it is estimated to take around four hours. Movers will head WEST on Indiana street from the house’s current location and then turn SOUTH on Willow Road. They will then travel EAST on Division Street and then head SOUTH on Weinbach Avenue under the Lloyd Expressway overpass. Finally, the movers will turn into the UE parking lot on the WEST side of Weinbach Avenue.  They will then begin the process of unloading the house so it can be secured in its final location behind the Koch Center for Engineering and Computer Science at UE.The unique Peters-Margedant House is just 552 square feet and currently sits at 1506 East Indiana Street in Evansville. The home was built in 1934 by William Wesley “Wes” Peters, Frank Lloyd Wright’s primary assistant. An Indiana native and Benjamin Bosse High School graduate who studied at both Evansville College and MIT, Peters was accepted as Frank Lloyd Wright’s first apprentice at Taliesin in Spring Green, Wisconsin in 1932. Peters would go on to work with Wright for the remainder of his career.The small house was designed by Peters and displays many of the principles of Usonian style, Wright’s architectural effort at creating affordable, efficiently designed homes for working families and the common man. The Peters-Margedant House showcases many specific Usonian characteristics and remains one of the style’s first examples, marrying affordability, accessibility, function, and efficiency of space – all qualities highly valued in the current Small House Movement of today.A grant from Indiana Landmarks saved the Peters-Margedant house from demolition and additional funds from the Friends of the Peters-Margedant House group and the Vanderburgh Community Foundation have made it possible to move the house to the University of Evansville’s campus where it will serve as a learning facility for both students and tFacebookTwitterCopy LinkEmailSharelast_img read more

Baker hits out at PAYE fines

first_imgCraft bakers hit by tough new fines are being urged to take their case to Chancellor George Osborne.HM Revenue & Customs is calculating penalties for firms that paid PAYE/NI late during the 2010-11 tax year, and one craft baker believes the penalty does not fit the crime.PAYE has to be paid by the 19th of the month following the month in which the deduction was made and fines were brought in so businesses don’t gain a financial advantage in paying late.However, the baker, who doesn’t want to be named, said if a company had a very small PAYE scheme and was paying on average £500 per month but paid two days late every month – probably because its customers were slow in paying – they would receive a £220 bill.“The benefit to the company in the saving of overdraft interest is approximately £14. So, in this instance HMRC wants about 16 times in penalties to the amount of the advantage.”For a larger company paying an £15,000 PAYE bill monthly, but paying 20 days late each time, its annual advantage would be about £345, while the actual penalty would be £6,600 – 19 times the advantage.He believes that to improve cash flow, businesses will look at redundancies so they can meet their liabilities and avoid the penalties. “I’ve got no problem with them bringing in a fine but the Revenue makes loan sharks look positvely philanthropic.”Gill Brooks-Lonican, CEO of the National Association of Master Bakers, said it was prepared to campaign on the issue if other bakers came forward with the same problem. “Some people might not even be aware of the fact there are penalities because it’s new legislation, so if we get more information, we can write to the Minister,” she said.An HMRC spokesman said the amount of PAYE paid on time in the last tax year was up on previous years.“The penalties were consulted on extensively with relevant stakeholders and representative bodies. As well as a late payment penalty being issued, interest will also be charged. This is to ensure that HMRC and customers are recompensed for losses of funds.”last_img read more

PHOTOS: Break Science Takes Boulder’s Fox Theatre By Storm

first_imgLast night, live electronic duo Break Science continued their five-night Colorado run with a performance at Boulder’s beloved Fox Theatre on Friday, February 2nd. The Boulder show marked the fourth of five Break Science dates in Colorado featuring production by Pretty Lights production designer Greg Ellis, a.k.a. Lazer Shark. The Boulder Break Science performance featured support from ProbCause and Lyfto.EXCLUSIVE: Lazer Shark Talks Pretty Lights, The Phoebus Cartel, And Re:CreationBelow, thanks to photographer Andrew Rios, you can enjoy a beautiful gallery of photos from Break Science’s 2/2/18 performance at Boulder, CO’s Fox Theatre.Break Science’s 5-night, 5-city Colorado run concludes this evening, Saturday, February 3rd, at Ullr’s Tavern in Winter Park, CO. For a full list of upcoming performances from Break Science, head to the group’s website. Break Science | Fox Theatre | Boulder, CO | 2/2/18 | Photos: Andrew Rios Load remaining imagescenter_img [Cover photo: Andrew Rios]last_img read more

How climate agreement impacts business

first_imgPARIS — The private sector — from large corporations to small businesses — will undoubtedly be impacted by whatever international agreement emerges from the U.N. Climate Change Conference taking place in Paris, but opinions vary as to how burdensome and costly those impacts will be. Participants in a side panel hosted Wednesday by the Harvard Project on Climate Agreements (HPCA) at COP21, shared their perspectives on the most important challenges businesses will face post-Paris.Robert Stavins, the Albert Pratt Professor of Business and Government and faculty director of HPCA, moderated the event, which included opening remarks delivered by Gian Luca Galletti, the minister of environment for Italy. In his remarks, Galletti stressed the need for climate negotiators to leverage market mechanisms in order to measure and monitor national goals for reducing carbon emissions, in particular as those goals change over time.“I do believe that we have clear ideas as to what are clear ambitions are in the future,” Galletti said, pointing to the need to set an aggregate target of lowering the growth of global temperatures to no more than 1.5 degrees “in order to sustain the future of the entire planet.” Event co-sponsored by Harvard Project on Climate Agreements Harvard’s Stavins, Stowe compare climate change policies in Paris Related Stavins summarized a recent research report authored by Associate Professor Joseph Aldy, which examines tools and institutions for assessing national targets, saying that such tools are critically important in order to allow for “meaningful comparison of effort” across countries.Simone Mori, Head of European Affairs for the Enel Group, argued that a climate agreement must take into account the fast pace of technological change.“The technology revolution over the past five, eight years has really been dramatic, and it really changes the picture,” he said, especially for developing countries “from Latin America to South Africa.”“It’s important to update the [national climate] pledges according to the evolution of the technologies,” he remarked.Jeff Swartz, who manages international climate policy for the International Emissions Trading Association (IETA), said that the agreement should include three important features for business: a process by which countries can cooperate on emission reductions so that they can transfer emissions credits across borders; strong and clear accounting provisions; and some form of a carbon emissions crediting system.The Italian Ambassador to France, Giandomenico Magliano, M.P.A. ’81, stressed that clear rules, simple policies, and effective governance will be important.“By harmonizing standards, we may achieve efficiency, we may achieve lower CO2 emissions,” he remarked.Panelists fielded a number of questions from those in the audience, including one from a young woman who identified herself as a “typical Chinese teenager,” who asked how to prevent politics from trumping environmental needs in the crafting of a climate agreement. Mori responded, saying that while “politics is a complex game … the direction [of climate policy] is very clear.”Giandomenico Magliano, the Italian ambassador to France and a graduate of Harvard Kennedy School, M.P.A. ’81), speaks with Doug Gavel, Harvard Kennedy School Communications, at the U.N. Climate Change Conference, COP21, in Paris on Dec. 9. The side event was co-sponsored by HPCA and the Enel Foundation.last_img read more

Millennials: Not so cheap, after all

first_imgby: Derek ThompsonOne of the hazards of being paid to think out loud is that most ideas are wrong, and some of those wrong ideas are bound to be yours.Several years ago, I wrote a column with Jordan Weissmann, now the senior business and economics correspondent for Slate, about how young people, gutted by the Great Recession, might turn against the culture of suburban homes and cars, the two big-ticket items that have powered the country through previous recessions. For many years, my chief frustration with the article was that the only words that commenters seemed to read were also the only three words we didn’t write: “The Cheapest Generation,” which was the headline. But this week, I have another frustration with the article, which is that, inconveniently, reality is messing with our prediction.When we reported the column in 2011 and early 2012, car companies were legitimately terrified that young people were abandoning their product. Young people value “access over ownership,” Sheryl Connelly, head of global consumer trends at Ford, told us. “I don’t think car-buying for Millennials will ever be what it was for Boomers.” As young people moved closer to city centers, public transportation would replace the function of a car for many young families and another mobile technology, the smartphone, would replace the spirit of independence, connectivity, and responsibility that used to be intrinsic to a teenager’s first car. This week, Bloomberg reports new data from J.D. Power & Associates, which finds that Millennials, or Generation Y (essentially: anybody born in the 1980s or 1990s), now account for 27 percent of new car sales. That’s more than Generation X, and second only to Boomers. continue reading » 2SHARESShareShareSharePrintMailGooglePinterestDiggRedditStumbleuponDeliciousBufferTumblrlast_img read more

5 things to consider before building a mobile branch

first_imgwith Anthony Burnett, Level5As the cost of technology decreases and consumer behavior trends toward web-based banking over in-branch visits, an opportunity is presenting itself in the form of Mobile Branches. A mobile branch can come in many shapes and sizes – from a simple ATM to a staffed, full-service branch. However, regardless of size, all mobile branches share one distinct advantage over their brick and mortar counterparts—maneuverability.Brick and mortar traffic has been declining since the inception of internet banking, and for a while now, financial institutions have looked for ways to bring people back into the branch. However, more institutions are beginning to think “outside the branch”, implementing mobile branches into their distribution strategy— seeking out the customer, rather than waiting for the customer to find them.John Baker, CEO of MBF Industries, claims that mobile branch sales have increased 10-15% year-over-year for the past three to five years. He predicts that those numbers will continue to increase as more institutions become keen to the cost-effective benefits offered by the mobile branch. Additionally, LEVEL5 sees the mobile branch as another physical channel to help banks and credit unions establish density in their markets. The physical channel is only a part of the overall strategy, but it synchronizes the automated and mobile channels with the omni-channel strategy.If your institution is thinking of adding a mobile branch to its repertoire, here are 5 things you’ll want to consider before manufacturing:LocationAs with all decisions about branching, the location is the most important. When choosing a location for the mobile branch, the bank or credit union needs to think about today and tomorrow’s money. Temporary locations are very effective to help build brand awareness and market penetration, but will likely never be a replacement for a full-service location.However, locating a mobile branch at a concert, in a park, or other high trafficked areas can help educate prospects about the bank or credit union and display its presence in the community. For existing customers, the branch can function as full service with the use of technology such as Interactive Teller Machines (ITMs) and ATMs.The portable nature of the facility, such as a modular wall system build or a modified shipping container, allows for quick setup and take down, so the mobile branch is in fact…mobile — proving yet again that the strategy for the mobile branch works in concert with the institution’s entire omni-channel strategy.Branding One of the biggest advantages of the mobile branch solution is branding. The entire branch is a billboard for the bank or credit union and serves to build brand awareness in locations that the institution could not normally get to in mass. For example, a mobile branch located in a high-traffic or dense area like a sporting event, concert, or park helps the bank or credit union serve existing customers while reaching new ones.Investing in branding is the biggest “bang for the buck” way for an institution to allocate dollars. Making sure existing and potential new customers know who you are and what you offer seems like a “no brainer”, but often banks and credit unions make too many assumptions about their value proposition to the community. Making that value clear through branding can increase sales, deepen market share, and boost customer satisfaction.TechnologyThe decreasing cost of technology is really what has made the mobile branch a cost-effective option for institutions—specifically the cost of data. Ten years ago, it cost institutions a lot to simply power an ATM, considering the expense of internet. Now, not only do mobile branches have an ATM, but multiple. They can also come packed with self-service tools such as interactive kiosks and ITMs. Branch employees can have personal workstations for loan processing, and digital signage can be used to promote, cross-sell, and educate visitors on products and services. Simply put, if it’s used in brick and mortar, it can likely be used in a mobile branch as well.StaffingDepending on the overall purpose of the mobile branch, you can choose to have staff or not. A simple mobile ATM for a concert or festival does not require employees. Furthermore, if a mobile branch is outfitted with self-service technology, it’s also unlikely employees would be needed. However, if the purpose of the mobile branch is to increase loan origination or financial advice, then a staff might be needed to manage the branch at all times.FlowThe “flow” of the branch is a function of the purpose of the branch combined with the physical limitations of the facility. By definition, the mobile branch is small and portable. Therefore, the flow will be influenced by these components. In many markets, the mobile branch will likely be educational and provide access to cash. In this case, the flow is well-defined via signage and focuses on flexibility to make it easy for customers to interact with the branch’s technology. Loan-focused branches need comfortable spaces for customers to sit and have some privacy. Every application of the mobile branch can be different, and the flow should be tweaked to meet the demands of the market it is serving. 46SHARESShareShareSharePrintMailGooglePinterestDiggRedditStumbleuponDeliciousBufferTumblr,Matt Deaton Matt Deaton is the Marketing Manager at Codigo, a Louisville. KY-based technology company that develops retail engagement tools such as digital signage, interactive kiosks, and on-hold messaging. Codigo has served … Web: www.gocodigo.com Detailslast_img read more

11 strategies to earn more, according to self-made millionaires

first_imgSaving is a critical component of growing your wealth.That being said, you can’t neglect earning, which is what the wealthiest, most successful people choose to focus on.“The masses are so focused on clipping coupons and living frugally they miss major opportunities,” self-made millionaire Steve Siebold writes. “The wealthy also know saving is important. But they know earning money is even more important.”Here, we’ve rounded up 11 strategies to increase your earnings, from the self-made millionaires who have already done it.Develop multiple streams of incomeIn author Thomas C. Corley’s five-year study of self-made millionaires he found that many of them develop multiple streams of income: 65% had three streams, 45% had four streams, and 29% had five or more streams. continue reading » 7SHARESShareShareSharePrintMailGooglePinterestDiggRedditStumbleuponDeliciousBufferTumblrlast_img read more